Alternativa à austeridade

“A vitória do Syriza é um sinal de mudança que dá força para seguir a mesma linha”

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Não era nada que se não previsse.
O capital tudo vai fazer para transformar o caso grego numa vacina.
Mas, como ainda não foi testada, não se sabe se vai resultar.
Acresce ainda que, no caso, a cobaia não vai querer colaborar.
Para já, os gregos, que não são tolos, estão a dar uma prova de grande coragem e dignidade.
Veremos como tudo isto irá acabar…
Nota: A certa altura, dava-se como certo um novo cortes nas pensões dos reformados portugueses. Recentemente, houve um recuo. Adivinhem por que foi…
Obrigado, povo grego!

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Sobre a Austeridade

Greek Politicians Should Learn from Latvia

In 2008-10 Latvia suffered an output decline of 24 percent, as much as Greece did in the six-year span from 2009-14. However, thanks to its front-loaded fiscal adjustment, Latvia was able to restore its public finances after two years. The country has shown solid economic growth, averaging 4.3 percent per year from 2011-14, according to Eurostat. …The consequences of tepid Greek fiscal stabilization have been a devastating six years of declining output, even as the Latvian economy has revived. In 2013 Latvia’s GDP at constant prices was 4 percent lower than in 2008, while Greece’s was 23 percent less than in 2008, according to the IMF. A cumulative difference in GDP development of 19 percentage points over six years cannot be a statistical blip – it is real.

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Novidades. Cada vez há mais gente, para além de Schauble e Varoufakis, que vêem, e bem, a completa inevitabilidade do GREXIT:

“The damage to the Greek economy is so severe that even if a third bailout plan is agreed, it is not likely to last very long and the country is still on course to leave the eurozone.

That is the view of Jonathan Loynes, chief European economist at Capital Economics, who writes:

The scale of the damage done to the Greek economy by the country’s renewed crisis and imposition of capital controls looks set to be far worse than the provisional plans for a third bailout envisaged and suggests that Greece is still likely to leave the currency union at some point.

Even before the Greek capital controls were implemented at the end of last month, the economy was being hit by the generally adverse effects of the renewed crisis. Although Greek GDP contracted by only 0.2% in the first quarter, the available hard data suggest that it did so much more sharply in the second quarter.

…But the damage to the economy appears to have increased much further under the capital controls. Last week’s EC business & consumer survey revealed a sharp slump in economic sentiment across all of the main sectors of the economy in July, pointing to the likelihood of much weaker levels of activity.

And this picture was supported by July’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, which included a precipitous collapse in the output index from June’s reading of 44.8 to an incredibly weak 18.8.

…Of course, such extreme weakness may not last long if the bailout plan under discussion allows the capital controls to soon be lifted and brings the crisis to at least a temporary end. But it is far from clear that this will happen. And even if it does, sharp declines in the PMI sub-orders indices in July suggest that it would take some time for growth to recover back towards “normal” rates.

The upshot is that the scale of the damage to the Greek economy from the crisis and imposition of capital controls looks set to be worse than most forecasters, including ourselves, had envisaged.

…Perhaps more importantly, the very low starting point suggests that, even with a stronger quarterly performance, next year’s average growth figure could be even weaker at -5% or below, no doubt much worse than any figure envisaged until very recently by Greece’s creditors.

Against that economic backdrop, the requirement in the current bailout plan for Greece to build up sizeable primary budget surpluses over the next few years looks extremely demanding, if not utterly fantastical. And that, in turn, casts serious doubts over whether the plan, if it is even implemented, will last for very long. In short, the acute weakness of the Greek economy continues to point to the country’s exit from the euro-zone in the not too distant future.”

Daqui:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/blog/live/2015/aug/03/greece-debt-crisis-athens-stock-exchange-opens-live

NOTA: como bem dizem Schauble e Varoufakis a Grécia não tinha (agora, para cúmulo, passou a ter) um problema de liquidez …. a Grécia tinha e têm um problema de solvência (é insolvente em absoluto). Dessa forma um bailout é completamente inútil, é uma prda de tempo e de dinheiro para os contribuintes europeus e não vai ajudar em NADA a Grécia.
Schauble tinha razão quando defendeu o GREXIT. Foi vencido pela “realpolitk” e pela “geo estratégia internacional” pois, económicamenteo, o bailout e manter a Grécia no Euro naõ fazem qualquer sentido. Para todas as partes.

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pode por ai o de Port ugal ? tb desde 2001 ate 2015 ? para termos duas austeridades para comparar .

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